So, we all thought the MVP race was over. Well, think again. At the time of writing this, Caesar’s Sportsbook has Nikola Jokic as the frontrunner with -130 odds, but Joel Embiid (+130) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+350) are right behind him, closing the gap. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum (+6500) and Luka Doncic (+10000) have plummeted to long-shot territory.

The debates are heating up, especially with new developments in Nikola Jokic slander. People are questioning if Jokic has what it takes to win three straight MVP awards, which hasn’t happened since Larry Bird’s glory days in the mid-80s. Teams are starting to attack Jokic on defence, opening up criticism of him getting consecutive titles.

One thing that has gained traction on social media is the argument that 10 of the last 11 MVP winners led the league in Player Efficiency Rating (PER). This season, Jokic is again leading in PER, which could solidify his position as the frontrunner. As an analytics guy, I think it’s great that an “advanced” stat like PER is being used to support the MVP race, rather than just relying on the best player on the best team or cherry-picked box score stats like leading scorer or averaging a triple-double.

However let’s remember that PER, or any other box score stat, can’t capture a player’s real impact. Basketball is more than just points, rebounds, and assists. It’s about intangibles like defence and the ability to create opportunities for your teammates.

That’s why scouting-based analytics like those found on Second Spectrum and +/- style data, which correlate a player’s presence on the court with changes in their team’s scoring margins, are crucial to analysing player impact.

Using Real Plus Minus (RPM), and when we look at the stats for the MVP frontrunners, we see that Jokic, Embiid, and Antetokounmpo are all very close. However, I give Embiid the edge in the narrative tiebreakers when we step outside these stats. As we know, MVP awards are usually based off of narratives. Given Emiid hasn’t won an MVP yet, it seems the edge would go to him.

Embiid has kept the 76ers afloat even when his two best lieutenants, starting backcourt James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, missed months of action in the first half of the season. When the 76ers faced off against the Nuggets, Embiid dominated the matchup with 47 points, 18 rebounds, and five assists (compared to Jokic’s 24, 8, and 9) in a hard-fought 76ers victory.

Doncic is having a solid season, but realistically, you hardly ever see an MVP come from a team flirting with a .500 record. His individual production isn’t so dominant for his peers to overcome that, and when you factor in the late-season injury that has kept him out of the last several games, he’s really out of it at this point.

I believe Giannis is the best player in the NBA, and the Bucks have the best record in the NBA, so I could support Giannis winning his third MVP. But, by the metrics listed here, his impact has trailed the other three, so I could understand him not taking this one home.

All in all, it’s a close race, and any of the top three could end up taking home the hardware.